Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about Confident Weather. Can't find what you're looking for? Check our docs.
General
Ensemble forecasting runs multiple weather simulations with slightly different starting conditions. Instead of one forecast, you get many — typically 50-80+ — which show the range of possible outcomes. When most simulations agree, the forecast is more reliable. When they diverge, there's more uncertainty. It's like asking 80 meteorologists instead of one.
A 50% chance of rain doesn't tell you if it's a confident 50% (models are split evenly) or an uncertain 50% (some models say 30%, others say 70%). Confidence scores tell you how much to trust the probability. A 50% chance with 95% confidence means the models are very sure it's a coin flip. A 50% chance with 40% confidence means even the probability itself is uncertain.
We don't claim 100% accuracy — no honest weather service does. What we offer is transparency. When our 133 ensemble members strongly agree, forecasts are typically very accurate. When they disagree, we show you that uncertainty so you can make informed decisions. Our confidence scores are calibrated so that, over time, 90% confidence events happen about 90% of the time.
Pricing & Plans
Free includes 500 API calls/day for testing and personal projects. Starter ($19/month) gives you 10,000 calls/day with the full 133-member ensemble and probability breakdowns. Pro ($49/month) gives you 50,000 calls/day, 7-day forecasts, and ensemble member details. Scale ($199/month) includes 500,000 calls/day, historical data, and priority support — built for companies that rely on weather data daily.
Yes! All paid plans (Starter, Pro, and Scale) include commercial usage rights. You can integrate our API into products you sell, client applications, or internal business tools. The free tier is for personal and testing use only.
Free: 500/day. Starter: 10,000/day. Pro: 50,000/day. Scale: 500,000/day. Need more? Contact us for enterprise pricing with unlimited calls and custom rate limits.
Technical
We provide global coverage. Our data sources — ECMWF IFS and NOAA GEFS — are global models that cover the entire planet. Whether you need forecasts for New York, Nairobi, or a remote farm in rural Australia, we've got you covered.
Forecasts are updated every 6 hours as new model runs complete. ECMWF updates at 00:00, 06:00, 12:00, and 18:00 UTC. NOAA GEFS follows a similar schedule. Our confidence scores reflect the most recent model runs available.
We combine data from three world-class weather sources: ECMWF IFS physics ensemble (European) with 51 members, NOAA GEFS physics ensemble (American) with 31 members, and ECMWF AIFS AI ensemble with 51 members. Together, that's 133 weather simulations for every forecast point — combining physics-based and AI-based models for maximum confidence.
We provide forecasts up to 15 days ahead. Confidence tends to be highest for 1-5 day forecasts and naturally decreases further out. We always show you the confidence score so you know how much to trust each forecast.
Still Have Questions?
Can't find the answer you're looking for? Check our documentation or reach out to our team.