About Confident Weather
Weather forecasts that tell you how much to trust them.
😤The Problem
Weather apps leave you guessing.
"50% chance of rain" doesn't tell you what you actually need to know. Should you cancel the outdoor event? Move the construction crew? Reschedule the photoshoot? You're left making high-stakes decisions on vague probabilities.
A coin flip shouldn't drive your business decisions.
💡The Origin Story
It started with frustration. I'd check the weather app, see "50% chance of rain," and wonder: why not just tell me how reliable this is?
Weather is inherently uncertain — that's fine. But pretending a single number captures that uncertainty? That's not helpful. What I wanted was honesty: how much can I actually trust this forecast?
So I built a tool that gives you the full picture — not just predictions, but confidence. When the models agree, you know it. When they don't, you know that too.
⚡The Solution
Ensemble-based confidence scoring. Instead of one forecast, we run dozens — and measure how much they agree.
The Data
133 Models
ECMWF IFS (physics, 51 members) + NOAA GEFS (physics, 31 members) + ECMWF AIFS (AI, 51 members) ensemble models
When most models agree, we're confident. When they diverge, we're honest about the uncertainty.
Not just predictions — confidence you can act on.
📊Understanding Uncertainty
Every forecast comes with a confidence score — a measure of how much the 133 models agree. Here's how to think about it:
The key insight: knowing the uncertainty is as valuable as the forecast itself.
👋Who We Are
Lewis. Building tools that give real answers.
Small team, focused on one thing: weather data that helps you make decisions. We're not trying to be everything to everyone — just the best at giving businesses the confidence they need when weather matters.
This is a B2B API for businesses that lose money when forecasts are wrong: event planners, farmers, construction crews, logistics companies — anyone who needs to know when to trust the weather.
🎯Our Approach
Honesty over certainty
We show you the full picture — even when it's uncertain. No false precision.
133 ensemble members
ECMWF IFS + NOAA GEFS + ECMWF AIFS — world-class weather models working together.
Actionable confidence
When models disagree, we tell you — so you can plan accordingly.
Ready to stop planning around "maybe"?